The debate over whether or not the possible approval of a Bitcoin ETF is fully reflected in the Bitcoin price rages on at X, formerly known as Twitter.
However, it stretches credulity to believe that with the market's accumulated knowledge and confidence that a Bitcoin ETF will be approved, the price is stuck below resistance at $44,713 to $44,963.
That resistance line near $41,400 will prove to be important when we look at the next chart below.
The chart above shows that when the 20-period lower Bollinger Band crosses above the Prophet Forecast line (the middle line between the upper and lower forecast bands), the Bitcoin price moves below the forecast line. In some cases, the Bitcoin price moves near or below the lower forecast band. That likely moves the price back below $41,400, or even below $40,000.
Are we to believe that Bitcoin which trades 24/7/365 is not an efficient market? If Bitcoin is an inefficient market, why would people want to invest in them indirectly through ETFs? Markets are two-sided, and the Decrypt article Bitcoin "ETF: Is It Priced In?" makes it clear that there are smart people on both sides who disagree.
The Bitcoin ETF is not priced in:
Butterfill points to the almost $14 trillion worth of American assets that he says will have the opportunity to gain exposure to Bitcoin once a spot Bitcoin ETF is greenlit. While only a fraction of that market is likely to opt in, it's nonetheless difficult to overstate the significance of the fact that Bitcoin might soon have theoretical interconnectivity with the majority of the US economy.
The Bitcoin ETF is priced in:
Vetle Lunde, a senior analyst at K33 Research, wrote in a report Wednesday that he finds it 75% likely that a Bitcoin ETF approval becomes a “sell the news” event—meaning one that drops BTC’s price due to a flood of investors selling off the cryptocurrency at the perceived crest of medium-term hype.
“Everything points towards traders being considerably exposed ahead of the verdict, with derivatives pushing massive premiums following BTC’s last three months of continuous upside momentum,” Lunde said.
Stonksmaster believes the Bitcoin ETF is priced in. Bitcoin, as a 24/7/365 market, has sufficient information, depth, and liquidity to be able to properly estimate what its price should be day-to-day. Otherwise, Bitcoin is an inefficient and volatile market not worth investing in.
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